The MotoGp silly season gets sillier (and earlier) every year, I’m sure you noticed this. We are 5 races into a 21 race season and already at least one rider has secured his place for 2025 with a new contract. And the confirmation of Bagnaia to remain at the works Ducati team has led to a wildfire of speculation about who his team-mate will be.
Now those of you with a long memory will recall that, around this time last year, there was much speculation that the under-performing Enea Bastianini would be shown the door at the end of 2023 to be replaced with someone who could show better results. What happened? Well, The Beast picked up his game in the closing part of the season and made it impossible for Ducati to dispense of his services so he remains Bagnaia’s team-mate in this season.
BUT, he is again showing the same lack of clout that he showed in 2023 and already the sharks are circling with all sorts of talk about just who might replace him in 2025 (his contract is up for renewal at the end of this season). With 16 races to go the speculation seems more than just a little ridiculous given that he could do the same thing this year as his did last year but that hasn’t stopped the pundits from pulling all sorts of possibilities out of the hat.
At the moment, and I hasten to add that this could change at a moment’s notice) there are two other candidates for the works seat apart from Enea.
One, of course, is the current championship leader, Jorge Martin. Showing outstanding form, Jorge is leading the “works” # 1 and showing no sign of slowing down in his pursuit of the 2024 championship. He is on a satellite bike at PRAMAC but it is a 2024 model so there really isn’t any difference between his and Pecco’s machine. However, the factory squad is more than just a little worried as it would be a black eye for them were he to win the title on a satellite bike. He is also young and brave and probably willing to dig a bit deeper into the risky area of racing than what Pecco might be. He also doesn’t know really how much it could hurt if he steps severely over the invisible line so he will probably continue to push himself and the bike to, and over the limit. The fact that he does seem to be a little prone to unforced errors might be a bit concerning to the factory. But, he is young and (hopefully) teachable and makes a good candidate in that he is a good long-term prospect.
The disadvantages? #1 and most importantly, he has the wrong passport. While Ducati make a big deal of selecting on merit, the facts are that they would always prefer to have an Italian rider to replace Enea and prefer LEAST to have a Spanish one. As noted above, he is still a bit fragile but that can be fixed.
The other candidate is Marc Marquez. Marc, in his best form since before his 2020 accident, also makes a compelling candidate but for entirely different reasons. I mean, what team wouldn’t want to have two multiple world champions on their books? But there is more to it than that. Clearly, Marc’s defection to Ducati has shown just how brilliant a rider he really is.
But that doesn’t make him a shoe-in. Firstly, he is old. 31 isn’t old by our standards but is for a racer. But, with age comes experience and Marc is loaded with that. As well as all the speed and raw skill that he always had, he now has a level of cunning and mental toughness that has been borne of the trials he has been through. His double 13th to 2nd performances in France showed that in stark detail.
And he is (of the two candidates) vastly more promotable. He is happy, he lets the world know what he feels and he is a team PR manager’s dream. He never blames the machinery if something goes wrong (even if it IS the machinery’s fault), he owns up when he stuffs up and he always has something intelligent to say when a microphone is shoved in his face. He brings with him a passionate fan base and a brilliant PR machine of his own and his presence in the factory squad would open up a whole lot more avenues than they presently have. Jorge, in contrast, is dour and, some say, too convinced of his own brilliance at this early stage of his career.
So, what will happen? Who knows. In between now and November (though the decision will be made long before that), Enea could pull a blinder and convince the team that he deserves to stay.
But, if he doesn’t, I predict that Lenovo will pick Martin, mainly based on his age and long-term prospects. Marc will stay at Gresini with the additional support from the factory of a current-spec bike and access to all their technical data.
Now, watch this prediction crash and burn!
