Well, we are nearly half way through the MotoGP season and, as is usual when the Summer break comes around, the Silly Season is in full swing. It is slightly less frenetic than usual, however, since most riders are part way through their contracts and aren’t likely to be moving till the end of next year. Pedro Acosta is attacking everybody who comes within reach with reasons why he MUST be in MotoGP next year but the boy needs to settle a bit as there are no seats available at KTM and KTM management sure isn’t going to let him go elsewhere. Fact is he needs another year in Moto2 whether he believes it or not.
The major talking point of the SS isn’t about riders, however, it’s about whether DORNA will allow Yamaha and Honda to have concessions for next year in order to keep the only two remaining Japanese manufacturers in the game. Of course it’s not going to happen. Changes such as this require the unanimous support of all the factories involved and the Euros are not going to allow it after they have spent the last decade getting themselves up to speed with the Japanese marques.
But the fact remains that Honda and Yamaha are in deep, deep doggy-do. Honda’s engine is OK but their aero is way behind the Euros and they are not likely to catch up any time soon. This interview with Takagami that was published this week shows just how diabolical Honda’s situation is. I do recommend you listen to is as it pretty much throws under the bus all the keyboard warriors and their uninformed comments about what they “think” is happening at Honda.
Yamaha is ever worse off because their insistence on persevering with an I4 engine and the enormous penalty that this is being to their efforts means that, even if they DID make V4 engine (they won’t, it takes YEARS to develop one) their aero is even less developed than Honda’s and they’d be faced with TWO insurmountable problems to try and solve at the same time.
So, if you’re a Japanese fan you’re condemned to a number of years of Euro whitewashing of MotoGP until Honda and Yamaha catch up. They WILL, of course, talk of them leaving MotoGP is complete BS, but it’s going to take a while.
BUT, the present situation begs the most important question of all, what is Marc Marquez going to do? Like him or not he is still the most talented rider on the grid, the last of the true “aliens” from the era when there were 4 or 5 of them and the only rider who can take it up to the newbies IF he had a competitive bike. Compared to Marc the other riders are all journeymen at best and, while they are talented, they are not in the same league as Marc even on their best weekend.
BUT, Marc is tied by loyalty to Honda AND he is now 30 years old. Should he stay with Honda he is going to be faced with several more years of heartbreak and his actions and attitude at the last few events before the break indicate that he is fed up with a crap bike, fed up with crashing and fed up with a manufacturer who has squillions of dollars but can’t provide him with a weapon with which to take on the Euros.
So, why doesn’t he leave? I hear you say. He IS tied to Honda also by a contract that runs till the end of 2024. See above comment about loyalty. There is nothing to suggest that 2024 is going to be any better than 2023 has been as well. So, could he break his contract and leave? Of course he could, contracts aren’t worth the paper they are written on when it comes right down to the nitty-gritty. Sure, it would cost him a poultice of money to do so but he’s got millions in the bank anyway and his personal sponsors would probably stump up with the funds if he asked them to.
But what would Honda say? Well, here is where it DOES get interesting. As late as last week, Alberto Puig, Honda’s team manager, said that they wouldn’t stand in Marc’s way if he really wanted to leave. Eh? Where did THAT come from? Well, it’s basically an admission that they know they’re not going to have a competitive bike for him for next year and they don’t want the bad publicity that is going to come with them holding him to his contract and continuing the present untenable situation.
So, what if Marc decided that he wanted to leave, the next question is where would he go? Plainly it has to be with a competitive team and that means it HAS to be one of the Euro manufacturers. Let’s look at that.
Ducati is out for two reasons. Ducati have said that there is no room for him and he has said that he doesn’t want to go to Ducati. He wouldn’t go to a satellite team despite the fact that the prospect of having he and his brother in the same team and on competitive bikes (unlike what it was like last time they were team-mates) is an interesting one. The only place COULD be Gresini as it seems like Diggi is on the way out but it’s a satellite team with old bikes.
KTM has more riders than they can poke a stick at and with Acosta rattling the sabre for a spot, they COULD drop one rider but, if they DID, it would be to accommodate Acosta not Marc.
So it’s only Aprilia. When you boil it all down, it’s the only solution. Much as everyone likes Maverick Vinales, he’s not a potential world champion or even a potential regular race winner. So he would have to go for Marc to have a place there. Would it work? Of course it could. It could be a win-win situation for both sides. Aprilia would have an 8 times World Champion on their books (working out who would be the team leader is a bit tricky) and Marc would have a competitive bike to go chasing wins again. Would Aprilia WANT him? Of course they would, they would be silly not to take up the offer if it was made.
It’s certainly going to be an interesting second half of the 2023 season.
