First of all, my apologies for the lack of updates. A small stay in hospital has kept me out of circulation but I’m home now and trying to catch up. Suffice it to say that, if you’ve been keeping track of the weather, you’d know that the arrival of Autumn has been accompanied by heavy rains that have made life extremely difficult along the eastern seaboard. The famous East Coast Low has seen the city deluged over the last few days and sights like the one above, published in today’s Illawarra Mercury, have been commonplace. After a very hot Summer (punctuated with some very extensive periods of rain) it looks like we’re going to be wet for some time. Indeed, the forecast for today suggests the possibility of up to 200mm of rain just today (that’s 8″ for my northern Hemisphere readers). It’s now early afternoon and, despite a few heavy showers, the promised deluge has not yet arrived, and I’m hoping it doesn’t. If it DOES, then I am likely to be residing on Horsley Island for a while. Let me explain.
Horsley used to be known as West Dapto and, as the name suggests, it is located between the township of Dapto in the east and the foothills of the Illawarra Escarpment in the west. Up until about 20 years ago it was grazing land that was broken up into a number of very successful dairy farms. The land is mostly flat and made a very convenient and profitable location for the expansion of Dapto (constrained on the north by flood plains that divided it off from Berkeley, in the South by farmlands and in the east by Lake Illawarra. Our house, which we bought in 2004, was built in 1996 and is located at the far eastern end of the estate. The map below should help to explain:
There are only three roads to access Horsley. The fact that the railway line also passes thought Dapto means that road access is also limited by the ability to cross the main southern railway line. Horsley is the estate in the middle of the map. Access to it from the north is by West Dapto Road at the top edge of the picture. Access from Dapto itself is via the curiously named Bong Bong Road (in the right centre of the picture) and, from the south via the rural road that goes through Cleveland at the bottom edge of the picture.
Now all of this would be fine except for the fact that, in order to get into Horsley, you not only have to cross the railway line (there is a bridge on Cleveland Road) but you also must cross a couple of creeks and it is the creeks that are the problem. As the crow flies, Horsley is less than a kilometre from Lake Illawarra, into which all the creeks in the area flow. If a heavy rain incident occurs, then the creeks find it difficult to flow all the water from the flood plain (on which Horsely is built!!) to the lake. Add in the fact that heavy rain incidents are usually associated with an East Coast Low pressure system and coincide with a king tide, and the coastal creeks like those around Dapto, back up and stay backed up until the tide drops and the backed-up rainfall can be vented to the lake.
When this happens (unfortunately regularly), Mullet Creek floods and overflows both West Dapto Road and Bong Bong Road and Horsley is isolated until the creek subsides. A couple of years ago the local council spent several million dollars constructing an “all weather” road along Cleveland Road to ensure that Horsley residents were not marooned when these events happened. Guess what? It also goes under water as it is built across flood plain and so locals and marooned anyway.
At the time of writing (1600) the promised deluge has not eventuated so we may yet dodge the bullet, but, even if we do this time, we probably won’t next time. Ah, the joys of living in a suburb that was designed by accountants rather than engineers.
Obviously there will be no riding for some days because the road conditions are going to be horrendous. All the local speedway events are cancelled (Nowra, Parramatta and, to the north, Lismore). Goulburn was to be on tonight but have “postponed” and are hoping to run a day meeting tomorrow. It looks like Bega on the south coast are also going to try and run tomorrow. The dilemma of running outdoor events.
Rain, rain go away? Amen.