It’s not quite silly season yet, mainly because everyone is pretty well set where they are anyway, but let’s do a bit of crystal-balling, shall we?
Yamaha: Lorenzo and Spies will stay. Spies MUST lift his game, however, if he wishes to stay past 2012. Many are suggesting that the lift to 1000cc will make a difference, making the bike more like the superbike on which he won his world title. They’re kidding themselves. The MotoGp bike will be NOTHING like a WSBK, so I hope they’re not pinning all their hopes on that idea.
Honda: (HRC) 3 into 2 won’t go. Stoner and Pedrosa will stay. Dovi will go to one of the satellite teams (probably LCR – replacing the disappointing Elias) with a promise from HRC of increased factory support (similar to the deal on which Simo went to Gresini.)
Honda: (Gresini) Simo will stay and, despite talk that the disappointing Aoyama will be shown the door, that won’t happen, simply because Hiro is Japanese.
Honda: (LCR) Dovi’s home for 2012.
Ducati: Despite suggestions that Rossi is considering retiring and going to a new, FULLY factory Ducati team in WSBK, that won’t happen. Yes, it’s been a horror year, but we need to remind ourselves of just how much a fighter Rossi is. He will stay and use his considerable clout (plus the embarrassment that this year has been to his bosses) to force them to build a bike that DOES work and that CAN win races. Hayden? Well, he’s next to useless as far as riding is concerned; he’s only there because he’s an American and Ducati sells lots of bikes in America. Expect him to stay for one more year and then be shown the door.
Yamaha satellite: (Tech III). Edwards is already out of the frame, and yesterday’s announcement that Bradley Smith will stay with the outfit in Moto2 for one more year before going to MotoGp in 2013 on a 4 year deal, means that Edwards’s seat is up for grabs. Crutchlow will stay despite his seeming inability to come to grips with the demands of MotoGp (very similar to his British predecessor at the team, in fact).
Ducati satellite: Aspar. Barbera will stay.
Ducati satellite: PRAMAC. Capirossi is gone, RdP is struggling, but will probably stay. Who replaces Capirex?? The question is better asked as “Who would WANT to?” Ducati is the poisoned chalice at the moment and it’s one from which only the most ardent or desperate would want to drink. I’m not even going to guess who the “lucky” rider will be.
Ducati satellite: HB Karbon. Abraham has been the Ducati revelation of the season, completely confounding all those who said he was only there because his dad is a millionaire and can afford to buy him a team. Abraham will stay.
Suzuki: Well, who knows, really? I don’t think even the world’s greatest optimist, Paul Denning, knows. Latest talk is that they will stay, using the 800cc bike on which Bautista has been putting in some stirring rides of late. The hope is that, if sales and the economy picks up and Bautista continues to fly the flag well, Suzuki will decide to go ahead and produce a 1000cc bike.
CRT: well, Bradl’s outfit has already said that they won’t be proceeding with an entry and I expect the other teams to be thinking long and hard right now about whether they want to spend the money necessary to prop up the back end of the MotoGp field. One team must stay so that Edwards can have his promised ride, but the prospect of CRT actually working as DORNA intended is becoming increasingly gloomy.
SO, where does that leave the prospective MotoGp hopefuls? Most significantly, what of Marc Marquez? Plainly he is being groomed for MotoGp and plainly the intention is sooner rather than later. And he is POSSIBLY ready, too. I couldn’t help but notice the astonishing similarity between his riding style on Sunday and that of Casey Stoner. The kid is a whizz and the temptation will be for Honda to do the expected thing and rush him into MotoGp in 2012 so that he can win (possibly) 3 world titles in 3 different classes in 3 consecutive years, as Rossi did.
BUT, Honda is cutting back (see above about Dovi). I think the Italian press would be livid if Dovi was cut at Repsol on supposedly economic grounds and then HRC miraculously “found” the funding necessary to slide Marquez into the factory squad. In fact, of course, they can’t because he would be a rookie and can’t ride for a factory team in his first year. If he does win the Moto2 title this year, and it probably doesn’t even matter if he doesn’t, expect to see Marquez in MotoGp in 2012, probably at LCR who will receive increased factory support to boost the team to a 2-bike outfit. Make no mistake, HRC want their big new star on the big stage and will pull out all the stops to achieve it.
So, there it is. Not many vacant seats and too many riders wanting to fill them. Musical chairs, anyone?