The MotoGp season just gone has been significant for a whole raftload of reasons but one particular aspect has been how early in the season the 2017 rider line-ups were decided. While some of the minor teams left it till nearly the end of the season, it was unseasonably early in the season for the rider pairings in the major teams to be decided. Most notably, Jorge Lorenzo’s move to Ducati precipitated a whole rash of changes. These days you have to wait until one major player announces their intention and it precipitates a whole lot of other moves, all of which have been festering away in the background just waiting for the signal to go. The “Domino Effect”
Of course, the major teams are the main concerns. Places in the top teams are limited and everyone wants to ride for the best team; both these statements are self-evident, but, when you consider that every motorcycle racer in the world would give his eye teeth to have one of those 8 positions, it puts the intense completion for them into a clearer perspective. So, for the first time in a few seasons, we have seen some major changes, three of which we have known about for some time. Lorenzo to Ducati, Vinales to Yamaha and Iannone to Suzuki.
So, let’s look at the now-completed list and see if we can draw up our own list of probables and possibles.
MotoGp riders for 2017
Yamaha: Valentino Rossi, Maverick Vinales
Honda: Marc Marquez, Dani Pedrosa
Ducati: Jorge Lorenzo, Andrea Dovizioso
Suzuki: Andrea Iannone, Alex Rins
KTM: Bradley Smith, Pol Espargaro
Aprilia: Sam Lowes, Aleix Espargaro
Tech3 Yamaha: Jonas Folger, Johann Zarco
LCR Honda: Cal Crutchlow
Marc VDS Honda: Jack Miller, Tito Rabat
Pramac Ducati: Scott Redding, Danilo Petrucci
Avintia Ducati: Hector Barbera, Loris Baz
Aspar Ducati: Alvaro Bautista, Karel Abraham
At Yamaha, Rossi may have thought that he’d have gotten rid of a team-mate who he never liked, but he’s out of the frying pan and into the fire. While it is abundantly clear that Yamaha have played favourites with Rossi at the expense of Lorenzo even though Lorenzo’s record for the last three seasons has been superior, it is going to be very interesting to see what the team will do with the arrival of the hot-shot Vinales. The post-season test proved (if post-season tests prove ANYTHING) that Vinales has adapted to the Yamaha instantly (there probably isn’t much difference between it and the Suzuki anyway) and that he is ready to take the next step up from being a regular podium finisher and occasional winner, to being a genuine championship contender. He’s fast, he learns quickly, crashes infrequently and has the media “smarts”. He is personable, has an already established media persona (how prescient were his parents to name him Maverick – all ready for him to be the Top Gun) and he comes from Suzuki with no baggage.
Barring injury or falling victim to the notorious Rossi psychological warfare within the team, Vinales looks set to leapfrog his older team-mate and assume Lorenzo’s dominant position at the top.
Rossi is entering the new season on a hiding to nothing. It’s been 7 years since he won the title last, an eternity in MotoGp terms. He endured two winless years (not just titles but races) at Ducati and, since returning to Yamaha he has been #1 rider in terms of the team’s structure but #2 everywhere else. He has had to watch his old rival, Lorenzo, win and his new nemesis, Marquez, win as well. Despite always being in contention and winning races, he has not put together a season where he had enough points to topple his two Spanish opponents.
Rossi is 38 and, despite saying that he wants to race on, it remains to be seen how much longer he will do so when the prospect of that elusive 10th world title gets further and further away.
It’s no change at Honda with Marquez and Pedrosa remaining as Repsol riders. Marquez heads into 2017 as the defending champion and with a mildly encouraging post-season test behind him. Like all top-class riders, he is still not happy with the bike and whether the off-season will see Honda get rid of the deficiencies of the 2017 test bike is moot; Honda are notorious for building a bike that suits THEIR engineering model first and what suits the rider second. However, it seems that the greatly matured Marquez will have more than enough “smarts” to adapt; he rode brilliantly this year to lift the title on a bike that everybody acknowledged was not as good as the Yamaha (smarter, not harder was the motto).
HRC have rewarded Perdosa with another year at the team though the reasons for it become more perplexing with each passing season. Dani is fast, a proven race winner, loyal to the nth degree and a willing worker. However, it must now be very clear that a championship will not happen and Honda is watching talented potential replacements being snapped up by other teams. I will be very surprised if his contract is renewed for 2018.
Unlike Honda, it’s all change at Suzuki. Losing Vinales has been a big blow. Snaring Iannone is a coup and, with some more discipline, Andrea should become a regular race winner though I don’t rate him as highly as the outgoing Vinales. The bike will be improved and he will have the status of the team’s #1 rider, something that was always a bit “murky” at Ducati. He should have no problem adapting to the very different Japanese bike and nobody can deny his courage and commitment. He must, however, stop crashing as often as he has done so this season. Championships are now so finely balanced that just one bad result can dramatically affect the complexion of the whole season.
Suzuki’s decision to hire Alex Rins flummoxes me. There is no doubt he is fast and I know that being fast is the priority. But he has had an appalling Moto2 season and will bring with him the psychological baggage of the failure to win the Moto2 world championship. It is to be hoped that Suzuki didn’t choose Rins too soon in the season; I wonder is some of the execs are already pondering whether they have made the right move.
And the same could also be said for Ducati. Faced with having to lose either B1 or B2 from the red squad in order to make room for Lorenzo, there are many who feel that they made the wrong call and should have kept B2. Iannone is a proven contender while Dovi, despite a promising beginning to his career, has slipped won into the “journeyman” category and keeping him on is somewhat mystifying. If the decision was made because he crashes less, then I think that is very short-sighted. You can train a fast rider not to crash, but no amount of training will make a “safe” rider fast. Dovi will be swamped by the speed and precision of Lorenzo and it might be that Ducati have made the wrong call.
Lorenzo will simply pick up where he left off. With years of experience at the top, he will build the team around him and will be a serious title contender. The latter half of his 2016 season caused some to question his commitment but he felt the death of Luis Salom far more than was appreciated at the time and he is a “head” rider. It doesn’t matter what the bike is like, he will get 100% out of it but his head-space needs to be right. When it is, he is untouchable and, with the awesome power of the Ducati at his disposal, he could easily win on debut.
The 2017 title winner will come out of those 4 teams. It’s always dodgy making the call this far out, but here’s mine.
Marquez will win again. He’s just too much of the complete package to not rank him first at this stage.
Vinales will finish 2nd in the title. He will relish the extra that Yamaha can offer and he is THE coming man.
Lorenzo will adapt quickly to the Ducati and will push Marquez and Vinales all the way to finish 3rd in the title chase.
What do you reckon??