Now that the 2014 season is over and the teams for 2015 are settled, it is a good time to examine the lineup and see if we can make some tentative predictions.
Here is the list:
Repsol Honda (Factory class)
Marc Marquez SPA (RC213V)
Dani Pedrosa SPA (RC213V)
Movistar Yamaha (Factory class)
Valentino Rossi ITA (YZR-M1)
Jorge Lorenzo SPA (YZR-M1)
Ducati Team (Factory class)
Andrea Dovizioso ITA (Desmosedici GP15)
Andrea Iannone ITA (Desmosedici GP15)
Suzuki (Factory class)
Aleix Espargaro SPA (GSX-RR)
Maverick Vinales* SPA (GSX-RR)
Aprilia Gresini (Factory class)
Alvaro Bautista SPA (ART)
Marco Melandri ITA (ART)
Marc VDS Honda (Factory class)
Scott Redding GBR (RC213V)
Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (Factory class)
Pol Espargaro SPA (YZR-M1)
Bradley Smith GBR (YZR-M1)
Pramac Ducati (Factory class)
Danilo Petrucci ITA (Desmosedici GP14/GP14.2?)
Yonny Hernandez COL (Desmosedici GP14.2)
LCR Honda (Factory/Open class)
Cal Crutchlow GBR (RC213V)
Jack Miller* AUS (RC213V-RS)
NGM Forward Racing Yamaha (Open class)
Stefan Bradl GER (Forward Yamaha)
Loris Baz* FRA (Forward Yamaha)
Drive M7 Aspar Honda (Open class)
Nicky Hayden USA (RC213V-RS)
Eugene Laverty* IRL (RC213V-RS)
Avintia Racing Ducati (Open class)
Hector Barbera SPA (Desmosedici GP14/14.2?)
Mike di Meglio FRA (Desmosedici GP14/14.2?)
Cardion AB Motoracing (Open class)
Karel Abraham CZE (RC213V-RS)
Iodaracing (Open class)
Alex de Angelis RSM (ART)
It’s fair to say that nothing has changed at the top end of town and it’s not likely to change much as far as expectations as well. Marquez will be the man to beat, Pedrosa will be patchy and MM93’s opposition will come mostly from the factory Yamahas rather than his team-mate. In spite of his excellent performances in the current season, I don’t expect that Rossi will be able to duplicate them in 2015. Lorenzo was rejuvenated in the latter part of this season and I expect him to be the top Yamaha riders in 2015. Just what Yamaha will be able to do to overcome the technical advantage that the works Hondas continue to have is yet to be seen. The Hondas brake better and accelerate better out of the (usually) slower corners. The Yamaha is better on the “classic” tracks where Lorenzo can exploit its 250-like high corner speed strength but these tracks are in the minority. Add to this the fact that the Honda has clearly been a more economical engine in terms of fuel consumption as well as a more robust engine in terms of longevity and the advantage still rests in the Honda corner. Add to this the perceived advantage that the RCV has in terms of balance and forgiveness when performing crazy stuff while heeled over and it looks like the Yamaha duo will be fighting over the scraps again.
Ducati are promising a brand new bike with a narrower-angle V4 engine (the “L” engine has been infuriatingly difficult around which to build a bike) as well as a new chassis to take advantage of what they hope to be a better donk. Desmo valve gear will continue (it’s a Ducati trade mark) and we should finally see the benefit of te millions of dollars that Ducati’s German owners have poured into the project. Audi plainly likes to win, witness their steam-roller sports car programme, but how long they will persevere without a shattering lift in results is anyone’s guess. Dovi is settled and has put in some excellent performances and Iannone, if he can stay on the bike, is as fast as anyone. Hopefully the new engine will be less thirsty as well. The imponderable will be whether the bike is yet good enough.
Tech III had a poor years by their expectations with Espargaro and Smith getting in each other’s way much too much. Smith has finally started to show some promise but is still far from a front-runner. Like many Moto2 graduates, Pol is struggling to impress. Still destined to be the “second” Yamaha team, I don’t expect to see either rider on the podium.
Suzuki is a real conundrum. Testing has been promising but the engine is still reportedly well down on power to where it needs to be at this stage and an embarrassing “technical failure” (read “blow up”) in testing shows that they still have not managed to achieve power and reliability. Add to this the fact that every prototype so far has been extremely disappointing in terms of fuel consumption and it is looking like Suzuki will struggle. Vinales is a superstar without a doubt but it is to be hoped that developing a new bike while getting used to MotoGp will not prove to be too much for him. Espargaro is an imponderable, though he has shown some good form on an Open Class bike this season. The $64 question is whether Suzuki is prepared to spend the money necessary to make the bike competitive. Previous efforts at this have been less than convincing.
MarcVDS steps up to the big game and Redding is their sole rider. This is both bad and good. It is good because they can be more focussed but it is bad because it only provides them with one lot of data instead of potentially two. There is no doubting the team’s credentials nor its commitment, but Redding has “plateaued” somewhat and I wonder if he is the right rider to bring the team the success they seek. Another British riders ho has struggled/is struggling under the weight of the British press’s expectation. Trying to be yourself while trying at the same time to be the next Barry Sheene has ruined many promising careers.
PRAMAC move up to the big game again, the Open Class experiment having failed to yield the hoped-for results. With Petrucci and Hernandez both riding upgraded versions of this years’s bike, it is hard to see either of them filling a spot in the top 5.
Lucio Ceccinello doubles the size of his team with Cal Crutchlow joining on a Factory bike and Jack Miller on a “customer” Honda. The Bradl experiment was a flop so it is to be hoped that he has backed a better rider this time. Crutchlow endured hell at Ducati as every rider does and he did far too much crashing, which is a Crutchlow thing anyway. Quite what that has done to his confidence is yet to be determined. Miller will be good, possibly even great, on the lesser-spec bike and I predict that he will be looking for a factory ride by this time next year. Remember that Stoner did some amazing things on an LCR bike in his first season and would have done much better if it were not for the team running lesser tyres.
The Aprilia team is somewhat in the same boat as Suzuki. Maiden season, hopped-up WSBK engine, unproven amount of backing from the factory and a strange rider roster. Bautista is on the wane, his best days are behind him. As a development rider I think he is too inconsistent and the team’s decision to hire Melandri says a deal more about nationality and loyalty than it does about good sense.
The rest of the field will be made up of Open Class bikes (the old CRT thing). The “advantages” of running Open class have proven to be largely illusory and it remains a class for riders with small budgets and expectations who are trying to break into MotoGp or riders who are on the way back down having failed to meet their expectations. Of the riders concerned the interesting on is Loris Baz who comes with good credentials from WSBK but with a cloud hanging over his head somewhat after his “disloyalty” in the second last round of the championship that probably cost Sykes the title.
The British press is loudly touting Laverty but it will be hard for him to progress much further than he has (unless Honda adds about 50bhp more to the “customer” bike that is!)